DEMOCRATIC DEBATE ROUND II: NARROWING THE FIELD

 JAZZMAN CHRONICLES:  DEFEATING TRUMP.

A LONG & WINDING ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

ROUND TWO PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES

Narrowing the Field

By Jack Random

It is fascinating to watch the spectacle of talking heads, editorials and columnists opinionating on the relative success or failure of the candidates based more on their views and biases going in than on their performances on stage. 

It is admittedly difficult to avoid bias in assessing a debate – especially a debate among twenty contestants over two nights with as much organization and structure as a demolition derby.  The event tends to reward the loudest voice though anyone perceived as rude and obnoxious will suffer the harshest consequences. 

Both nights produced clear winners and losers despite the chaos.  Elizabeth Warren won the first night in a relatively calm event and Cory Booker won the second amidst outbreaks of anarchy.  Beyond that no candidates distinguished themselves in any positive way. 

NIGHT ONE:  TIM RYAN, BETO O’ROURKE, AMY KLOBUCAR, ELIZABETH WARREN, MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, JOHN HICKENLOOPER, PETE BUTTIGIEG, BERNIE SANDERS, JOHN DELANEY, STEVE BULLOCK.

NIGHT TWO:  MICHAEL BENNET, KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND, JULIAN CASTRO, CORY BOOKER, JOE BIDEN, KAMALA HARRIS, ANDREW YANG, TULSI GABBARD, JAY INSLEE, BILL DE BLASIO. 

ABSENT: ERIC SWALWELL. 

It is tempting to say that Eric Swalwell won by dropping out.  Having made a name with his sharp attacks on the misdeeds of our president, Swalwell should have been the impeachment candidate.  Instead, he gave his “pass the torch” rant and bowed out like a timid protégé who spoke out of turn.  Sorry, Mr. Biden, someone had to say it. 

In his place we got Governor Steve Bullock of Montana and the question is: Why?  He joins the ranks of Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney and Michael Bennet.  They’re all here to tell us they too are members of the Democratic Party and they’re younger than old Joe Biden.  They know how to do “folks” speech. 

Michael Bennet gets the award for quote of the night when he said to Julian Castro:  “We actually agree on this.  You just said it better than I did.”  Well, Gov, that’s the problem.  There are others who say it better.  Let me introduce you to Amy Klobuchar.  Unfortunately, this does not appear to be the year of the moderate.  This year we only have room for one:  Old Joe Biden. 

On that note it’s time to say goodbye to Congressman Tim Ryan and former Congressman John Delaney – both of whom managed to make pragmatic sound bombastic.  No one demands more attention for less than 1% support than Delaney.  Goodbye Delaney.  You will not be missed. 

Goodbye governors Bullock and Hickenlooper.  We hardly knew you.  Goodbye Marianne Williamson.  I for one enjoyed your spiritual perspective.  Goodbye Mayor De Blasio.  I understand how hard it is to see a mayor of South Bend, Indiana, advance while the mayor of the Big Apple does not but that’s how it played out.  Hopefully, NYC will take you back. 

Sadly, we must also say goodbye to Senator Klobuchar.  Sadly, because she should have been the challenger to Joe Biden for the moderate wing of the party.  Sadly, because she never got the chance to be on stage with old Joe.  She’s sharp.  She knows what she’s talking about and she doesn’t stumble over own thoughts.  She’s what a moderate should look like but it looks to me like she’s gone. 

According to the Times of New York only seven candidates have met criteria for the next round of debates:  Biden, Booker, Harris, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, Sanders and Warren.  Three more are close:  Yang, Castro and Klobuchar.  And three have an outside chance:  Newcomer Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard and Hickenlooper. 

The survivors will face down in September.  If there are more than ten they will take place on two nights. 

Here’s hoping the hammer comes down on more candidates than less.  We’ve seen enough to know that the contest will come down to Old Joe, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders.  Five is a good number for a debate.  These five represent the whole of the party:  Biden is old school.  He appeals to those who pine for Obama and don’t mind that his age is visibly impacting his performance.  Warren and Bernie represent the progressive wing of the party.  They won’t try to moderate their positions.  They know what they believe and they hold strong.  Booker and Harris are moderate progressives.  They’re willing to bend but they are capable of wielding great personal power. 

Some on the left of the political spectrum may be pleased that Representative Tulsi Gabbard took on the role of hit-woman to Kamala Harris.  She accused Harris of deliberately withholding evidence to affect the execution of a death row inmate – a felony – and keeping prisoners behind bars to exploit slave labor.  Never mind the accusation that she enforced the marijuana laws.  We may disagree with it but that was her job. 

I suppose we should thank Gabbard for hurling the kind of accusations that the Trump machine will but it did not look good.  It looked like a hit job.  It looked rehearsed and deliberate.  It hurt Harris but it also hurt Gabbard. 

I went into these debates a Gabbard supporter.  Now I have to wonder about her agenda.  She was the anti-war candidate and I cherished every moment of her deliberations on “regime change” wars.  Now she looks like an attack dog. 

Beto O’Rourke has an identity problem.  There are others who represent the same ideas but are more qualified for the presidency.  His whole case for being the Democratic nominee comes down to Texas.  But he lost his only attempt at winning a statewide race in Texas.  Moreover, there is a Texas senate seat open in 2020.  Drop this ill-advised run and use your substantial resources to take that seat.  I’ve said before and will again:  Taking the US Senate is equally important if not more so than taking the presidency. 

Pete Buttigieg represented himself admirably but it’s time to stop.  We know he represents an under-represented minority but he has never won a statewide election.  If there were no one else to carry the banner I would say carry on.  But there are others.  He has not distinguished his policies from the other contenders. 

Kirsten Gillibrand provided one of the most bizarre appeals to the black vote ever recorded.  It is true that she understands white privilege and can speak to those who exploit white privilege but that is unlikely to persuade a single African American voter.  Gillibrand is bright and ambitious but this is simply not her year. 

Andrew Yang is one of the most impressive neophyte politicians ever to run for president.  His ideas demand to be heard.  He is right.  Technology is already supplanting job exportation as the leading cause of job loss in this nation.  He alone has a plan to cope with that daunting future and the other candidates need to begin addressing the problem.  Yang belongs in the next cabinet and his ideas belong in the debate. 

Washington’s Governor Jay Inslee represented his cause well.  It’s a shame that he does not possess the charisma that would inspire the masses.  He’s right of course.  Climate change should be the overriding issue.  However, not enough of us think it’s a winning ticket.  Inslee should be the next head of the Environment Protection Agency. 

Julian Castro also distinguished himself.  He thrust the immigration debate into the spotlight and demanded that the other candidates take a stand.  As the only Hispanic candidate there is a place for him as the number two on the ticket.  He simply has not managed to garner the kind of support that would elevate him to the upper tier. 

That brings us to the real contenders. 

Can anyone really say that Joe Biden did a good job?  Come on.  Really.  Read a transcript of his statements.  It’s hard to say but Old Joe just doesn’t have what it takes to be the next president.  He was a good vice president to the first African American president in history.  That should be enough. 

I love Bernie as much as most people love Old Joe but it’s time for Bernie’s supporters to accept that he’s a little too old, too crotchety and maybe too angry to take the show all the way home.  Last time he was great.  He was a champion of the people and I was proud to march in his army.  This time there is an alternative and I believe even Bernie knows it. 

Kamala Harris was knocked down a rung in this debate.  It shook her.  She tends to let her frustration show when she’s stung.  It showed.  She got back up and threw some good punches but the air of invincibility shattered.  She’ll remember Tulsi Gabbard and Biden’s bizarre reference to 1000 prisoners being freed.  Both cases are far more nuanced. 

Cory Booker emerged in this round as the one to watch.  He was the one to look into Joe Biden’s eyes and take him down.  Where Kamala stumbled – dazed by a sucker punch from the sidelines – Booker stood strong.  He still has a lot to explain about his policies as mayor of Newark but Biden is not the man to challenge him. 

That leaves Elizabeth Warren.  She is the heir apparent to Bernie’s movement.  Where Bernie tends to become frazzled and appears angry, Warren lays it down in plain fact.  She has the passion, the knowledge and the energy.  She represents the true progressive wing of the party and she does not compromise.  Still, she was not fool enough to label herself a socialist. 

It’s going to be a barnburner – a knockdown drag out fight to the finish.  So far Warren has not found a way to gain significant support of the black community.  That poses a problem she must overcome.  But she has gotten the attention of African Americans with her openness to reparations, her proposals for rebuilding inner cities and her vibrant defense of voting rights and civil rights.  Already she has made inroads that Bernie failed to make in his unsuccessful bid to pull the nomination away from Hillary. 

Whatever happens, the field will narrow and one candidate will emerge to take on Donald Trump.  If you’re a true progressive your primary interest is that it should not be Joe Biden in some misguided notion of electability.  Your next goal is to nominate Warren or Sanders.  If you’re a moderate, you’re rooting for Old Joe but you’ll be fine with Booker or Harris. 

Jazz. 

Note:  This article appears on OpEd News.

“Only Seven Candidates Have Qualified for the Next Democratic Debate” by Maggie Astor.  New York Times, August 1, 2019. 

“Fact Check: Did Kamala Harris block evidence that would have freed inmates?” by Emily Cadei and Bryan Anderson.  Sacramento Bee, July 31, 2019.