A LONG & WINDING
ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE
A Presidential
Election Analysis from Pretenders to Contenders
Part Two: The Underdogs
By Jack Random
In part one of A Long and Winding Road I discussed the prospects and substance of seven
announced candidates for president under the banner of the Democratic
Party. I pronounced them pretenders
though they represent sincere issues and segments of the electorate. They included former US Senator Mike
Gravel, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam, author Marianne Williamson, entrepreneur
Andrew Yang, billionaire investor Tom Steyer, Starbucks CEO Howard Schulz and
Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Of the seven, only Mayor Pete has gained traction in the
early campaign. By virtue of money
raised and excitement generated he has earned a prominent place on the
Democratic stage of presidential hopefuls. While I respect the mayor for his eloquence and intellect, I
stand by my pronouncement that he is in fact a pretender. On the long and winding road to the
White House he will be forced to admit that one does not jump from Midwest
mayor to commander-in-chief in a single bound.
At a time when Democrats are obsessed with electability, the
odds of any pretender advancing to the White House are less than hitting a
trifecta on three 100-1 underdogs at the Kentucky Derby. Supporters of Mayor Pete and the others
will peel off to other candidates as the campaign progresses.
I know the counterpoint: The current occupant of the Oval Office skipped all
electoral offices and went straight to the presidency. To which I reply: Exactly. He was not qualified for president and it shows in
everything he does, says or tweets.
He is being played and outplayed on the international stage by China,
North Korea, Israel and Russia. He
has weakened NATO and alienated our traditional allies. We are extremely fortunate that his
actions or inactions have not yet led to an absolute and irreversible
catastrophe – unless we consider climate change. If we make it through the rest of Trump’s term, let’s not
press our luck.
The next level of candidacy includes those technically
qualified to run for the highest office in the land. Some have made a name for themselves on cable television for
their opposition to Trump in the Russia Gate hearings or the Immigrant
Child-Parent separation scandal.
Others attracted the national spotlight in their previous campaigns –
most notably Beto O’Rourke. Not
coincidentally, most of them are or were members of the House of
Representatives. The only member
of the lower chamber of congress ever to be elected president was James
Garfield in 1880. It was not a
memorable presidency.
TIER TWO: THE
UNDERDOGS.
FORMER CONGRESSMAN BETO O’ROURKE
Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke
represented the sixteenth congressional district of Texas for six years before
challenging Lying Ted Cruz to represent Texas in the United States Senate. He captured the nationwide interest of
liberal Democrats and raised an extraordinary amount of money in a losing
campaign. O’Rourke announced early
his intention to run for the White House and immediately launched his impression
of James Dean in Rebel without A Cause. Recently he decided to stake his claim
as the Green candidate by announcing a five trillion dollar plan to combat
climate change. That is serious
money. He plans to raise it by
restructuring the tax code.
I like Beto. He’s as good as it gets for Texas
Democrats. It’s a shame he could
not knock off the man nobody but his mother likes – and even she’s not sure. There’s still time to take aim at
Republican Senator John Cornyn in the upcoming election. Want to make an impact, Beto? Take another shot at the senate. That’s where the balance of power
resides.
CONGRESSMAN ERIC SWALWELL
Swalwell of California possesses
the same All-American athletic look that John Edwards once parlayed into
contender’s status on the presidential stage. Like Edwards, he is well spoken and can be charming. Unlike Edwards, he is not and has never
been a United States Senator. He
has not in fact run for a statewide election.
Swalwell serves on the
Intelligence and Judiciary committees.
He has frequently appeared on cable news programs where he has launched
spirited attacks against the most corrupt president since Warren G. Harding of
Teapot Dome infamy. Oddly enough,
Representative Swalwell has chosen gun control as his key issue. It makes me wonder why impeachment is
not his central theme. It makes me
wonder if his handlers have informed him that impeachment is not a winner. It’s too bad. Impeachment is where his passion lies. He has made his reputation on impeachment. Who will take up the issue if not
Swalwell?
CONGRESSMAN TIM RYAN
The 45-year-old Ohio
representative has gained some notoriety in his effort to challenge the
leadership of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
In the vacuum left when Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown decided not to run,
Ryan considers himself the labor candidate. The party definitely needs a labor candidate but Ryan has a
marked tendency to pull back on every issue in an effort to stake out the
middle ground. He must believe –
as moderates do – that it makes him appear more reasonable when in fact it
makes him appear weak and without honest conviction. Take it from the Hillary Clinton campaign: we don’t need
another triangulator – especially when it comes to labor.
Like so many before him, Ryan laments
the loss of US manufacturing and the related decline of the American middle
class but his solutions fall lamentably short. Just how would you bring back manufacturing? Tariffs and trade wars? Spell it out. Just how would you fight back robotics and automation? Would you advocate the government as an
employer of last resort? I think
not. I believe you are afraid of
the S word and will backtrack at its mere utterance.
The American economic system has
embraced elements of socialism since well before Franklin Roosevelt’s New
Deal: the prohibition of
indentured servitude and child labor, the forty-hour work week, safe working
conditions, labor unions and the right to organize, Medicare and Social Security. Anyone who is afraid of the S word need
not apply for the presidency in 2020.
We really do need
specifics. It is not sufficient to
be from Ohio. You have to have
real solutions.
FORMER CONGRESSMAN JOHN DELANEY
The former representative from
Maryland is yet another candidate hoping to catch fire from the middle
ground. Let me run through just a
handful of reasons a moderate cannot and should not win the nomination: Climate catastrophes, mass shootings,
runaway technology, income inequality, climate change and climate change.
Delaney supports Free Trade –
including Fast Track legislation and the Trans Pacific Partnership. He believes Trump’s trade war with
China is representative of Fair Trade.
He is wrong. Fair Trade
requires representation of labor and labor interests. Trump may be the most anti-labor president in history.
JFK didn’t say we want our
children to dream of going to the moon someday; he said we would go to the moon
by the end of the decade. The
nation desperately needs someone with the same urgency on climate change. It will not come from the middle
ground.
CONGRESSWOMAN TULSI GABBARD
The nation’s first Samoan
American and Hindu member of congress, Tulsi Gabbard represents the second
congressional district of Hawaii.
Gabbard is a leader of the movement to stop supporting the Saudi
slaughter in Yemen. A veteran of
the tragic war in Iraq, she strongly opposes the nation’s reckless
entanglements in the Middle East.
She opposes military intervention in Venezuela. She endorsed Bernie Sanders in the last
presidential election and falls in line with Bernie’s politics. She wants Medicare for All and supports
the Green New Deal. Anyone who
does not should switch parties.
Gabbard has attracted
controversy in her interactions with PM Narendra Modi of India and Bashar al
Assad of Syria. Much ado about
nothing. She does not endorse
either leader. She is a Fair Trade
advocate and a leading opponent of American imperialism. She stood with the Standing Rock
warriors against the Dakota Access Pipeline. If you take those stands, you will be criticized.
There is a lot to like in the
young representative from Hawaii.
She is seemingly fearless and speaks out whenever she perceives
wrongdoing. She deserves the
support of all Sanders supporters who want someone younger – myself
included. If she secures a place
on the debate stage she will be heard and I for one will stand and
applaud.
GOVERNOR JAY INSLEE
“Inslee is the only candidate in
the race who is treating climate change the way that science says climate change
should be treated: not as one issue among many, but as the overriding emergency
of our age.” – Ezra Klein, Vox 5/13/19.
The Green Governor of the state
of Washington was the first to step forward and proclaim climate change as the
central issue of the 2020 presidential election – Beto O’Rourke was the
second. He is of course
right. All politicians like to
talk about our children and grandchildren, our legacy and our posterity. Few politicians match their policies to
their rhetoric.
The naysayers of Global Warming
proclaim that the whole Climate Catastrophe scare is a hoax perpetrated by a
cabal of elites determined to reconstitute the planet under their control. These clever conspiracy theorists have
captured the precise opposite of the truth. What is the truth?
That a cabal of elites have perpetrated the lie that global warming is a
hoax to protect their interests until the last drop of oil and the last block
of coal are spent.
Governor Inslee is out to prove
that the Green New Deal is not only environmentally but also economically
sound. Under his leadership
Washington has pushed through legislation on clean energy, energy efficient
buildings, electric vehicles and efficiency standards. He tried and failed to pass a carbon
tax.
Inslee correctly points out that
placing Climate Change on a long – or even short – list of priorities virtually
assures that nothing of substance will prevail. Obama never got past health care – or rather, health insurance
reform – and Trump has failed to accomplish anything after tax cuts for the
elite.
Yes, I wish the governor had
more style but he has substance.
At this early stage in the process those who are inclined should
contribute to the cause of getting his message on the debate stage.
FORMER HUD SECRETARY JULIAN
CASTRO
The former mayor of San Antonio,
Texas, is the only candidate of Hispanic descent with even a remote chance of
making it to the final stage.
Castro served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama
administration.
Castro is well spoken with an
appealing immigrant back story but his campaign hit the road in low gear and
has hardly picked up speed. He
seems to be making his stand on education with a promise of free preschool
through four years of college.
Castro also promises to recommit the nation to the Paris Climate Accord
and submit a plan for universal healthcare on day one of his presidency. So there’s that.
The trouble is the candidate hit
the stage without a message. Maybe
he thought it would be sufficient to be the only Hispanic/Latino of
substance. Some years it would be
sufficient but not this year.
There are too many candidates and too many issues of immediacy for
identity politics to once again prevail.
For the life of me, I can’t
understand why these Texas Democrats don’t take aim at the senate. I’ll say it again: That’s where the action is and if by
chance Castro or O’Rourke should prevail the pathway to the White House would
open like a bouquet of roses on a sunny spring morning.
MAYOR BILL DE BLASIO
With approximately 22 official
candidates already in the race, the first question that arises with the
addition of NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio is why? Does he fill some fundamental need that is as yet missing
from the field? The mayor’s signature
issue is income inequality – an issue that is amply covered by presidential
heavyweights Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. He is uniquely positioned to attack fellow New Yorker Donald
Trump and wasted no time in calling him out with the nickname Con Don. I would recommend Don the Con if only
because it sounds better. Trump
fired back with the accusation that De Blasio is the “worst mayor in the
history of New York City.” That
was it.
Come on, Donald. You can do better than that, can’t you? It seems he won’t take the mayor
serious until he secures a place on the debate stage.
In many ways de Blasio is an
appealing candidate. His family is
multi-racial and multi-cultural.
He has instituted universal free preschool in America’s main metropolis. He put a stop to the city’s “stop and
frisk” law that targeted minorities and blatantly violated the
constitution.
Unfortunately New York continues
to have a number of serious problems, including dilapidated public housing,
homelessness and deficiencies in America’s most advanced and neglected subway
system. The mayor counters that
much of what is wrong with New York is attributable to policies in
Washington. Good point.
His popularity in the city has
held in the low forties and most NYC voters – 76% according to Quinnipiac
University – do not want him to run for president. Given those numbers and the crowded Democratic field, it’s a
little difficult to understand why he feels compelled to throw his hat in.
GOVERNOR JOHN HICKENLOOPER
The governor of swing state
Colorado, Hickenlooper has felt for a very long time that the nation needs a
moderate and the Democratic Party needs someone from landlocked America. He considers himself a pragmatist who
knows how to get things done.
Unfortunately, that’s the same line every moderate gives and there’s no
reason to believe that a Colorado governor would do any better than a former
Illinois senator. Believe it or
not, Barack Obama was a moderate who tried to work both sides of the
aisle. We all know how that turned
out. Sorry, Gov, the Republic has
never had a four-syllable president.
You’re not likely to be the first.
At risk of sounding like a
recording on continuous loop, Republican Senator Cory Gardner is up for
re-election in 2020. Take him on,
governor. Work on both sides of
the aisle from the majority in the US Senate.
GOVERNOR STEVE BULLOCK
Governor Bullock of Missouri is
yet another Middle America moderate.
I don’t know why every Middle America moderate thinks he or she should
be president – or maybe I do.
Bullock, Hickenlooper and others are stuck in the old way of thinking:
that the political divide is all about ideology. I believe that once held great validity but not any
more. Many of the policies
advocated by yesterday’s Democrats, from trade policy to first amendment
rights, would find themselves more comfortable in the Republican Party. Democrats are being held to a new
standard: Voters want their
candidates to stand up and be counted.
They want a presidential candidate who will take on Trump and his
minions. The moderates do not fit
the bill.
This concludes my review of the
underdogs. Each of them is
qualified for high office and each has something to bring to the forum. Unfortunately, too many of them add
little to the debate. The question
for the second tier candidates is:
How long can they last?
Most of these candidates are not
really running for the presidency but rather for the vice presidency. That race is wide open. The consolation is that some will gain
favorable name recognition for future pursuits.
Jazz.
JACK
RANDOM IS THE AUTHOR OF THE JAZZMAN CHRONICLES AND FOUNDER OF CROW DOG
PRESS. HIS NOVELS INCLUDE HARD
TIMES: THE WRATH OF AN ANGRY GOD AND PAWNS TO PLAYERS: THE CHESS TRILOGY – THE
STAIRWAY SCANDAL, A MATCH FOR THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE PUTIN GAMBIT.
